Handicapping the Supreme Court Race...er...vacancy

There are many things that must be taken into consideration in order to properly handicap the "race to the bench". First and foremost, who's doing the nominating? For all intensive purposes we'll assume that George Bush (and not Karl Rove) is the pony here. Second, where's the finish line? Well for alll practical purposes the finish line would be a confirmation, but for this exercise we'll be looking for a declaration of nomination. Third, the context encapsulating the race. This part is a bit more difficult to neatly package into a clever sentence; if this was really a horse race we'd be talking about the track condition, the weather, the distance. Instead, we need to focus on the political landscape.

Currently Bush's approval numbers are dropping faster than Brittney Spears popularity. After finally actually winning the race for POTUS in November, Bush's post-war momentum is losing the battle of inertia. Add to that a current gallup poll stating that more than 50% of Americans want a consensus nominee and a bloodless battle. That means a compromise for those of you who can't read between the line. As such, the popular opinion is that Bush will select a nominee that will apease the masses and ultimately only slightly shift the court further to the right (by replacing Sandra Day with a Sandra Day/Scalia-Thomas hybrid).

The problem is that Bush's legacy is anchored by his comittment to buck the status-quo and go it alone (Kissinger's revolutionary power?). That's what he did by nominating Bolton, and thats what he did by unilaterally invading Iraq. As such, it is not unreasonable to believe that list of candidates drawn up to replace the Chief Justice are the candidates they (the admin) feel are most qualified for the bench. Meaning there is no reason to believe that Janice Rogers Brown is any less a viable nominee, just because swing-vote Sandra is stepping down and not The Chief. Couple that with the fact that Bush all but signed a contract with his own blood to nominate a barrister that would appease the radical religious right (r-cubed).

Finally, the fact that Sandra Day was the first woman to reach The Bench also forces us to take diversity issues into account. Might this push Pres. Bush to nominate another woman, or a minority, or a homosexual...well not a homosexual becuase they evidently have less legal rights.
That being said, here's an initial list of possible candidates an their odds of nomination, in no particular order:

Alberto Gonzalez----- 3:1
Priscilla Owens------- 7:3
J. Michael Luttig----- 8:3
John Roberts-------- 6:1
Emilio Garza--------- 10:1
J. Harvie Wilkinson-- 12:1
Michael McConnell--- 12:1
Larry Thompson----- 14:1
John Cornyn--------- 15:1
Samuel Alito--------- 15:1
John Kyl------------- 16:1
Theodore Olsen------ 20:1
Edith Jones---------- 25:1
J. Rogers Brown----- 27:1
Lino Graglia--------- 85:1
John Ashcroft-------- 100:1
Bill Clinton----------- 500:1
Phillip C. Bobbitt----- 800:1